| Jun 08 | Sep 08 | Dec 08 | Mar 09 | Jun 09 p | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonally adjusted | |||||
| Overall (%) | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Resident (%) | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
P: Preliminary estimates
I am looking only at seasonally adjusted rates to remove the effect of tertiary graduates entering the job market, and students finding employment during the school holidays.
The news have been talking about unemployment treading downwards for residents. At first glance, I thought that the Jobs Credit seems to be working and more jobs are given to residents (Singaporeans and PR). However if you look at the table, something doesn't add up. If the jobs credit scheme did help, it should have been reflected in the Mar 09 statistics. Instead, you see a jump of 1.2% from Dec 08 to Mar 09.
The difference between Mar 09 and Jun 09 unemployment rates is also not very substantial, and according to the statistics results released, the decline might be the result of more people deferring job searches and pursuing courses, thereby removing themselves from the job market. Comparison between Jun 08 and Jun 09 also shows that graduates have a harder time finding jobs upon graduation.
Translated, the statistics only show that unemployment stabalised between Mar 09 and Jun 09, and the Singapore economy is still no better since Mar.
Granted that without the Jobs Credit scheme, the numbers may look even worse. Anyone who keeps track of the news knows that quite a significant number of foreign workers have been sent home due to the recession and the "phantom" workers saga. This may explain why the unemployment rate has been holding steady since Mar 09.
I do not see any basis that the economy has recovered, but the property and market fever in Singapore seems to have restarted recently. If you look at all the statistics however, there is no basis for this "fever" to start. The job market in Singapore may get worse (e.g. Segate layoffs) in the 2H09, especially when the people that has finished their courses goes back to the job market.
Morale of the story. Do not be too carried away by this property and market fever. It is most probably going to get worse, before getting better. Remember, the global household saving rates are going upwards. Where's the demand coming from, and is it sustainable?
2 comments:
My bf ORD in Mid June, till now he is still jobless. He went for several interviews already. Seem like they are either wanting a Degree grads or paying only $1.5 for a poly grad.
Is this a time that jobseekers shouldn't be expecting much for? Esp the pay?
Do not expect to get the salary poly grads are getting last year or the year before.
Back in 2003, I believe that is also the rate for a poly grad. In fact, during that time, a university grad may only get 1.8k-2k, depending on the type of work.
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