Saturday, September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike forecast weird!

I have a habit of watching the progress of hurricanes around the world, but one thing that I've found weird recently is that the forecasts of the hurricane strength goes against what I know conventionally.

Hurricanes in most cases always weaken when they approach land due to the differences in temperature. However, I've seen some forecasts recently that actually says that it will strengthen when it hits land. That's something that I really do not understand.

For example for Hurricane Ike, 2 days ago I've already expected it to hit the coast as a Cat 2 hurricane, but many says it will hit as a Cat 3 hurricane. It was the same for Gustav.

But then again, I'm not the weather expert. There might be some hidden reason why they forecast it in this way. Anyway, I expect oil to hit 90 USD/barrel next week, and that the market will discount some president's attempt to stop the oil price from falling.

Fundamentals of economics... When demand drops, prices will drop in tandem. If you have enough foresight, you will let it drop. Otherwise, people will just go into alternatives, or they will make their own alternatives.

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