Saturday, September 6, 2008

It's the business, stupid

Being a self-confessed news addict, I love to read about news that covers a wide range of topics. Recently in the local papers, there are many articles about the state of the economy and why the market reacted the way it did in the local newspapers.

I have to admire the ideas these crystal ball writers have when they write those columns. When the oil price is high, they say that inflation is spinning out of control, and if it doesn't fall, we will be heading to "doomsday". Now when oil price (and other commodities) is finally falling due to the drop in demand, these people said that the oil price is "too low", and because of the absence of "petrol dollars", the economy cannot be sustained. So the conclusion of these writers? No matter what happens, we're heading to "doomsday".

Seriously, I think they need to regulate the people writing those columns, and to ensure that the writers for that specific topics have qualifications on that topic itself. Saying that the Singapore economy is dependent on "petrol dollars" is like saying the economy is dependent on the people that strikes TOTO.

When we talk about the economy, we're talking about the businesses that makes up the economy. Knowing the state of the economy means that you need to identify the country's main businesses and sectors, and what drives it. You'll need to have knowledge on the different sectors, what businesses are currently driving those sectors, and the background of those businesses and what the businesses are dependent on.

What drives Singapore economy? Manufacturing stupid, not petrol dollars. Who are our biggest trading partners? Which countries do we export to? What's the domestic consumption like locally and for our trading partners? Will the fall in commodities worldwide drive up consumption?

I leave it to you to reach your own conclusions.

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