Hints for an upward review of transport fares in the 4Q2011

Updated 15 Feb 2011: Singapore Residents Household Median Income

Singapore has deferred their mid-term review of transport fares to the the 4Q2011. However, there are already hints of things to come. A quick re-cap of the public transport fares formula:

Maximum fare adjustment =
Price Index – 1.5% (productivity extraction set for 2008 to 2012)

Price Index = 0.5CPI + 0.5WI;

CPI: the change in Consumer Price Index over preceding year: 2.8% in 2010.

Wage Index (WI): the change in Average Monthly Earnings (Annual National Average) over the preceding year, adjusted to account for any change in the employer’s CPF contribution rate; 3.1% in 2010.


However, looking at the recent results of the SBS Transit and SMRT though, both have cited the increase in fuel/electricity prices and staff costs for the lost of profitability. Looking at SBS Transit increase of staff costs (increase of 1.3%), that would mean an increase of at least 0.5% of our public transport fares. Looking at the latest household median income information for 2010, that will translate to an increase of 2.95% of transport fares!

Let's not forget though that the delay of the review is due to the opening of the rest of the Circle Line. That would also mean that there will be another fares review as both the bus and train fares are sharing the same fare structure.

How will it change? I've no idea, but my gut feel says UP. There's no way that there will be a reduction or even a status quo after such a stunning economic and inflation growth in 2010.

Time will tell.