Inflation is down 0.8%

These are the Singapore inflation rates for 2015:
January: -0.4%
February: -0.3%
March: -0.3%
April: -0.5%
May: -0.4%
June: -0.3%
July: -0.4%
August: -0.8%
September: -0.6%
October: -0.8%


For the month of October, both Education & Food rose by 3.7% and 1.8% respectively year on year. Inflation went up for communication but it was offset by a larger than expected drop in Housing & Utilities. As a result, even compared to last month, Inflation was down.


Looking at the current trend now, it would seem that the average inflation for this year would be negative. However, in terms of the inflation of everyday expenditure, it would have risen. The average cost of food for myself have increased in the early second half of this year. Oil prices however will keep inflation down, most probably.

4% pay rise shows the big disconnect with reality

You have news that

- growth is slowing down all over the world, including China

- retail giants are losing money quarter on quarter

- property giants are losing money

- oil and gas giants are losing money

- technical recession is happening all across Asia and the world

And yet, there is news that there are salary rises next year by 4%. If that doesn't show the obvious disconnect with reality, I am not sure what will. Drawing an analogy, it's like saying that you are giving your children a 4% raise in allowance when your salary is being reduced and your job might not be around next year. 

Ridiculous right?

Inflation is down by 0.6%

These are the Singapore inflation rates for 2015:
January: -0.4%
February: -0.3%
March: -0.3%
April: -0.5%
May: -0.4%
June: -0.3%
July: -0.4%
August: -0.8%
September: -0.6%

For the month of September, both Education & Clothing & Footwear rose by 3.5% and 2.3% respectively year on year. Inflation is stable compared to the previous month, with only clothing & footwear showing some noticeable difference. In fact, if clothing & footwear was excluded, inflation would have went down further.

As mentioned, I am still of view that US is going to slowly raise their rates at least once this year but since we are closed to the end of the year, the effect won't be seen this year.

Looks like there may not be any inflation this year.

Inflation is down by 0.8%

These are the Singapore inflation rates for 2015:
January: -0.4%
February: -0.3%
March: -0.3%
April: -0.5%
May: -0.4%
June: -0.3%
July: -0.4%
August: -0.8%

For the month of August, both Education & Food rose by 3.7% and 1.9% respectively year on year. Inflation has been trending up month on month, most noticeably on Housing & Utilities, but inflation is negative most probably due to the high base last year.

I am still of view that US is going to slowly raise their rates at least once this year so we might be in a state where inflation is low, but interest rates are ticking up.

Don't complain when you are not recognized at work

I thought that I should write a short note on the outcome of the recent general election results. Let's stop harping on what happened previously and look forward to the future since the election is over.

However, some Singaporeans have lost their right to complain that they are not recognized at work because some of them voted out a member of parliament that was working full time on their issues, unlike most of the other members. If you don't recognize the hard work that your mp put in, don't expect others to recognize what you did. That's the precedent that you have set for yourself. 

I worry for our future. 

What I have not yet heard so far

I have been very busy for the past few years so I have not got much time to blog about issues close to my heart. Looking at the current election rallies, I think some of the points have not yet been brought up, which I find important for us to move forward. 

First and foremost, the focus on GDP. Just google around and you will realize that there are many papers written about the focus on GDP does not necessarily translate to benefits for the citizens. In my opinion, this is especially true for us. Why?

First, our workforce. Most of our workforce are foreigners coming in. They don't have roots here. Some do not have families here. What do they do? Send most of their money back to their own country. What is the effect? No downstream effect to the rest of the businesses that usually flourish due to more disposal income. Evidence? Franc franc, borders, provision shops. All of them are leaving or closing. Why? Think about it. 

Next is the over focus on what I term as elitism education. Why do I say that? Let's go back to the basics. Do you learn how to build a wooden chair by reading the theories, going to exams and getting an A? Ask all the graduates of our universities on their practical experience. Look at all the highly paid CEOs , permanent secretaries of our statutory boards and ministries. How many have practical experience in the domain of which they are supposed to lead in strategy and direction? Is running a business all about money? Did Microsoft and Apple get to where they are because of the bottom line?

Last but not least, the unfair advantage of foreign companies in Singapore. Yes. You heard me right. In other countries, local companies usually have the home advantage but not here! I am not even going to cite examples because if you are in the SME, you will know this issue very well. You have foreign companies bringing in cheap labour from other countries to be based in Singapore due to some unknown pacts that were signed by our government. These people come for the short term, earn little from our perspective because their standard of living is not as high as Singapore, and go back. Quality may be questionable too. How do SMEs compete against such unfair advantage? The worst part is that this unfair advantage is totally supported by the government. Our standard of living is very high so there are expectations of a higher salary. We have families here and houses to pay for. When we try to hire foreign workers we get slapped by a high ratio quota. Coupled with the fact that we  may sometimes face an entitlement issue with local workers who sometimes don't even have any shred of practical experience and yet ask for high pay, how can local companies compete and most importantly, innovate?

I leave it as that for anyone who bother to read this to ponder on it. It's not like we don't have money. We are making money but yet, we only spend 50% of what we earn on ourselves. As I recall, I don't think we are a listed company. Even then, look at Amazon. They plough their profits back to r&d to improve and innovate. 

What are we doing? A case of scrounge mcduck?

Let's step back and think about what we want for the country. We are unique in the sense because all we have is human capital. If we don't invest in ourselves and be happy, how do we move forward?

Something to think about. I have reached my mrt stop. Another day of meetings.  

Fill in excel form to register with MFA?

I've been repeatedly seeing the MFA encouraging Singaporeans in Bangkok to register with MFA. However, does MFA realized that their eregister system is not yet functional and the webpage only ask the person to fill in a complicated excel file and email to an email address? Who will bring a laptop overseas so that they can fill in the excel form? Shouldn't they provide an easier way to do it for this situation???

Lack of creativity and collaboration

Just read a Bloomberg article that pretty sums up the major issues that Singapore faces today, most importantly, the education system which is going down the wrong direction for a long time with its obsession in theory tests, which is in reality useless in the working world. 

Below is a snippet of the Bloomberg article: 

The rapid buildup in the immigrant population, from 5 percent in 1980 to 29 percent in 2014, has spurred a fierce backlash. Rising living standards have led to plunging fertility rates and longer lifespans: Singapore is now one of the fastest-aging societies in the world. The emphasis on big multinationals and government-linked companies has held back the development of small and middle-sized enterprises. In education, standards are world-class -- except when it comes to creativity and collaboration.

Government really pro small businesses?

The Singapore government has always highlighted that they are pro small businesses, helping SMEs but is that really felt on the ground? The key issue for small businesses is always about cash flow, where you may get lots of deals but unable to get any cash because of the constant changes in requirements or because of outside competition from other countries who are not affected by the manpower quota and can charge much cheaper than Singapore based countries. 

In the United States, very often quoted as a hub of innovation, has bills that allow banks to make loans to qualifying small businesses, and the agency in-charge guarantees them, allowing lower interest rates and companies with short credit histories to obtain capital.

That is something that is missing over here. Is it because we have policy makers who have no idea the issues that the SMEs really feel on the ground?

Inflation is down by 0.3%

These are the Singapore inflation rates for 2015:
January: -0.4%
February: -0.3%
March: -0.3%
April: -0.5%
May: -0.4%
June: -0.3%

For the month of June, both Education & Food rose by 3.1% and 2% respectively year on year. Inflation has been quite stable compared to previous month but it is slowly ticking up as mentioned previously. The trend will continue, bearing any external shocks.

However, US is going to slowly raise their rates so we might be in a state where inflation is low, but interest rates are ticking up.

Result of withdrawing bus routes parallel to train routes

What does the recent breakdown of the North South Line and the East West Line tell us? It was a wrong call to withdraw bus routes that duplicate the train routes. When the line is down, there is absolutely no way that a person can get home and all the buses deployed is of no use because there are just too many people stranded at the same time. 

Don't go comparing with other countries having train breakdowns because I know for the fact that at least one of the countries, Japan, has parallel train routes and their railway is designed in such a manner that they can bypass certain stations if need to. 

Immediate need is to reinstate bus routes that run parallel to the train routes. That would also incentivized the train operators in doing preventive maintenance properly, not corrective maintenance. 

Reap what you sow

For those who were quick to criticize about the Amos Yee issue, just remember one thing. It was his choice to be remanded. 

Amos Yee had previously rejected the option of probation and a term in the Reformative Training Centre as a sentence, sticking to his original plea for a jail term.

Be objective in your criticism.

Inflation is down 0.4%

These are the Singapore inflation rates for 2015:
January: -0.4%
February: -0.3%
March: -0.3%
April: -0.5%
May: -0.4%

Apologies as I was quite busy the past few months, so much that I forgot that I have not yet posted last month's inflation rates. For the month of May, both Food & Education rose by 1.8% and 3.1% respectively year on year. Transport inflation was surprisingly trending higher, even though inflation seems to be tame in many parts of the world.

As mentioned, Transport inflation has trended higher but surprisingly, housing & utilities inflation is trending lower than usual. Inflation is slowly ticking up but looking at the inflation trend, it seems that it is still on a downward trend.

Inflation is going to be negatively impacted this year. We have not yet have any months with positive inflation so far, so we might be having near 0 experience

Inflation is down 0.3%

These are the Singapore inflation rates for 2015:
January: -0.4%
February: -0.3%
March: -0.3%

Both Education & Communication rose by 3.5% and 2.5% respectively year on year. Both Transport and Housing & Utilities inflation has trended lower, continuing the trend from last month. Surprisingly, food inflation has also went down, which may be due to the lowering of the oil price which has a knock off effect on almost everything.

Inflation has already started trending higher and the price of oil has steadily increased.This trend will most probably continue until May when the April results are out. Transport inflation and housing inflation should also start to trend upwards from there on.

Truth behind famous Amos?

The news that keep cropping up recently is Amos's Youtube rant online. I did not have a chance to see the video but I did see his post about his secondary school life, which to my surprise, something I can relate to.

It has been decades since I left secondary school and I'm quite surprised that the problems I faced in school last time still exists in this current day. Let me bring up 2 main points.

In school or even in the working world, there always seem to be a trend to be socially acceptable. And to be socially acceptable, it means you must blend in with a group. If you are not able to find a group with the same thinking as you, you will be ostracised, which is the best thing that can happen to you. The worst thing that can happen to you is that you'll be bullied or in this generation, cyber bullied because you do not fit in with the "norm". Although Amos does have an issue of having almost 0 EQ, this should not be an excuse for others to take advantage of.

I am surprised that till now, this kind of teaching still exist because I can relate to it personally. No matter how much rote learning is done, it would do no one any good if the foundation is not built up properly. Giving me 50 variations of a question is totally useless if I do not understand the foundation behind the question. What's the goal of going to school? The goal is to learn. How do you know that you have learned enough? There are exams. So what happens if whatever that you were taught is not good enough to pass the exams? Regardless of what issues the teachers are facing now, we need to go back to the objective of learning in school. I would like to issue a challenge to anyone, if a student can go through the entire syllabus for the year without tuition and still get an acceptable score that allows you to proceed to the next stage.

Can anyone do that now? Seeing the complaints I hear from my friends with kids, I seriously doubt so.

Do not be distracted by the style that Amos used to write his rants. Look beyond that, and look at the essence of what he said. Are you sure the essence of what he wrote has not struck a chord within you?

By the way, he writes remarkably well for a secondary school graduate.

Inflation is down 0.3%

These are the Singapore inflation rates for 2015:
January: -0.4%
February: -0.3%

Both Education & Food inflation again rose by 3.6% and 2.5% respectively year on year. Both Transport and Housing & Utilities inflation has trended lower, continuing the trend from last month.

This trend will most probably continue until May when the April results are out. Transport inflation and housing inflation should also start to trend upwards from there on.

How does independent accountant safeguard spending of public monies?

I read with interest on the Singapore Government’s unprecedented move in seeking to appoint independent accountants to safeguard its grants to AHPETC. My question is simple. If AGO's audit is insufficient in guaranteeing that the monies are well spent, why is this move only specific to AHPETC.

What's the assurance that the other town councils are also spending the monies wisely? Has MND forgotten about the investment of the sinking funds in Lehman Brothers? Is this investment wise? Aren't those monies public funds? Why wasn't there an independent auditor appointed for that case?

Instead of appointing independent auditors to audit AHPETC again, I feel that MND  should take the chance now to have a overall framework in place to govern all the town councils to prevent misuse of grants for all, not only specific to AHPETC. I don't see the point of consistently trying to audit AHPETC and diverting their attention away from the normal work done by town councils.

With all the talk about over payment, MND should instead take over the calling of the procurement for the town council system instead of letting individual town councils call their own, especially when the town council system is owned by someone closely affiliated with a political party. You don't see Oracle using SAP software if their own software can do the same functions right?

Seriously, in the real world, no one uses a competitor's product for their core business and I don't see why this is called overpayment when the other party didn't even submit a bid.

This year is obviously an election year because the government has spent their surplus accumulated over the term. No leader will take the risk of spending all the surplus in a period of slow growth.

If the auditors are appointed, the results would most probably come out around Sep, which is right about when an election may be called soon, looking at the busy calendar in Singapore and around the world. This court order is not depoliticalising the issue. My take that this is further politicalising the issue.

Ominous omen for downtown line

All along I've been wondering why on earth the authorities would even think of ending the downtown line at an LRT line, and to top if off, the most frequently broken down LRT line in Singapore as of today.

The issue with the LRT line this week is an ominous omen on what is to come when the downtown line is finally open. Just imagine. If the LRT line is down, think of the repercussions on downtown line and all the other connecting lines to it.

It will cause a massive slowdown for all the affected lines and there's nothing we can do about it because there is no additional rail to bypass affected stations. To top it off, the authorities removed most bus routes that duplicate the train routes making it even worse because there are no alternatives.

Is everyone only thinking of the positive scenarios and did not think of the negative scenarios?

How will 150,000 people move in and out?

Reading about congregating 150,000 people in one area just brings about one important question. How will 150,000 people get to the place and leave the place, especially with our "world class" public transport system?

Organizing celebrations at only one area is old school. All the newer celebrations are separated out into different areas because the planners know of the big strain on the public transport system. Even the countries organizing the Olympics also know this basic concept. 

I look forward to see how are they going to resolve this issue. 

Inflation is down 0.4%

These are the Singapore inflation rates for 2015:
January: -0.4%

Both Education & Food inflation again rose by 3% and 2.2% respectively year on year. Education & Food inflation trend continued upwards from last month. Both Transport and Housing & Utilities inflation has trended lower, continuing the trend from last month.

Other than Education, Food inflation has also continued the trend upwards as mentioned last month. However, the basket of inflation items and baseline has been changed so it's difficult to see how the trend will go.

I do not think Singapore will go into deflation, not after the upcoming transport hike and petrol hike.

Looking at single bid from a business perspective

P1: There are 2 companies that will be able to help us better run this operation as this is their area of expertise.

P2: Lets invite both of the companies to submit a quotation.


1 month later...


P1: Did both of the companies get back to us?

P2: One did and one did not. Company A that got back to us has a track record of running our smaller operations. Their system is not tuned though to run such a large operation but they will fine tune it to fit into our operations at a cost.

P1: Will we be able to afford to accept Company A's proposal?

P2: We have the resources. If we do not accept Company A's proposal, we would have no other choice but to run the operations ourselves. This is not our area of expertise and we also do not have sufficient manpower to undertake such a task. This may result in a lowering of satisfaction for our core business as resources have to be diverted to learn this new area of expertise. We will also need time to understand the present operations which we do not have.

P1: Given that our current vendor will be leaving soon, it's important that someone comes in quickly so that the knowledge can be transferred and the new vendor can hit the ground running. Although this is not our core business, this is still an important aspect of the business as it helps to keep the day to day operations going. Our competitors also do not have knowledge of this area of expertise and I don't see them getting into it as this is not their core business and will divert unnecessary resources to this area.

Let's go with Company A then as the other options will not lead to a better outcome for our customers.

Questions have become very political

I was quite disappointed with some of the questions thrown by the MPs in parliament because any one can see that some of the questions are GE questions and are just repetition of the answers already given in the written form. Some thoughts:

1. Certification of payment is different from approval of payment. Certifying a payment just means that the OIC is certifying that goods / services have been delivered so payment can be made. AGO audit did not uncover any instances of mis-certification of payment
   
2. Comparing the cost of the PAP town council system against their system is comparing apples vs oranges. The PAP town council system is established, used by many town councils and have economies of scale. If you need to build a system from ground-up and its only used by a couple of town councils, obviously it's going to be more expensive. Moreover, with all that talk, that company that manages that town council system did not even make a bid. The comparison is useless.
   
3. There was only one instance of overpayment which was acknowledged by the chairman of WP. Just because a system is more expensive than the other doesn't mean that they are being overcharged.

It's precisely due to these kind of thinking that have driven down the cost of technology products. Everyone think that systems are easy to build and should be cheap. Well... My challenge to them is to ask them to build a cheap system and get a good third-party quality and security team to scrutinise the system.

Quality doesn't come cheap. Missing functionality is different from quality of the system.

Why the focus on AHPETC when there are other issues?

I have been busy recently but even then I am quite tired of listening to the continuous reporting of Aljunied Hougang Punggol East Town Council (AHPETC) conflict of interest (COI) issue. No matter how much reporting is done, it does not deviate from the understanding is that there was COI but there wasn't any wrong doing. However, the AGO report is also out and in it, there is even an instance of misuse of funds. I never heard any reporting of those issues.

Below are some excerpts from the AGO report which you could also view here:

1. MINDEF: Lapses in the Licensing of Land
2. MOE: Lapses in Tender Evaluation and Contract Management
3. MOE: Lapses in Appointment and Monitoring of Former Staff Engaged for Projects
4. MFA: Contracts Made Outside Singapore Not Signed by Authorised Signatories
5. SCDF: Lapses in Controls over Financial Commitments and Payments
6. SCDF: Misuse of Funds Stored in Cash Cards
7. MDA: Lapses in Evaluation of Projects for Funding
8. NHB: Irregularities in Management of Variation Works
9.  HSA: Contracts Awarded to Incumbent Contractors that Did Not Meet Tender Requirements
10. NPARKS: Creating and Backdating of Documents Furnished for Audit
11. NCSS: Irregularities at Various Stages of Procurement
12. SPRING: Lapses in Procurement of Services to Administer an Award

Seriously, those examples that I've extracted out would have more learning points than AHPETC.

Idea to help the small retailers

Recently I was in discussion over the very expensive retail space in Singapore when it hit me on how to help the small retailers to get a leg up here.

The problem with retail space in Singapore is that its only meant for the rich. There is no place for the small and startup retailers that want to start out. To think the government is complaining that there is not enough innovation. How can you get innovative if all your money is spent on that rent?

So what is my idea? Basically its a very simple concept. We often see empty space in malls which they let out to those insurance firms, travel firms, or big stores such as metro and challenger. Why are we letting these big players take up all the space?

These places should be reserved for small players to have pop-up stores for a few days, eg Thurs to Sun. Grants could be given by the government so that the rent is kept affordable for these small retailers for that short period. How to keep the rent affordable? The easiest way is to only charge a percentage of the revenue and that's it. Base rental is covered by the grant.

That would help the smaller retailers to gain exposure and experience, and bring variety to the shopping mall too. This can also be extended to other areas that have such open spaces.

I believe we as consumers are also tired of seeing the same big names everywhere we go and sometimes, a leg-up is all the small retailers need.

Inflation is down 0.2%

These are the Singapore inflation rates for 2014:
January: 1.4%
February: 0.4%
March: 1.2%
April: 2.5%
May: 2.7%
June: 1.8% 
July: 1.2%
August: 0.9%
September: 0.6%
October: 0.1%
November: -0.3%
December: -0.2%

Both Food and Education & Stationery inflation again rose by 2.9% and 2.8% respectively year on year, similar to the previous month. Transport inflation trend continued from last month, going down by 4.1%, slightly lesser in comparison to last month. Housing inflation has also dropped 1.4%, slightly more compared to last year.

Food inflation remained high, with almost all the food prices rising compared to last month. Prepared meals have been rising by 3% as compared to last month and 2.9% as compared to last year. Judging from what I see on the ground, inflation will continue to trend upwards for food prices.

From a year on year perspective, inflation only rose 1% as compared to year 2013, as mentioned in my last post. Moving forward, inflation numbers will trend lower but it will not be obvious to us due to the rise of food prices. The downward oil price will be a relief as our electricity bill has already went down for the next quarter.

Looks like based on numbers, year 2015 inflation will not be that high, but I do not see it going towards deflation, no thanks to the hike in transport price which was approved recently. :(

The future is always unknown

I quote from Lailah Gifty Akita:

The future is always unknown. Live your own life. Live in the moment. Live so well in the present, so that when tomorrow never comes, you may have no regrets.

Don't presume you know what will happen if you have not done it before. What you presume is only based on assumptions and may not happen. Only by doing it will you be able to truly shape your future.

Those with EP are paid higher but it does not resolve the locals salaries issue

Rising the qualifying salary of those with EP passes were made law with one very big assumption... Rising the salary of the foreign workers will result with locals having the same qualifications getting the same rise in salary. However, this may not be true.

The reason is very simple. Just look at the news. There are so many instances where Singaporeans were fired and foreigners were hired to take their place. Where is the law that helps prevents deserving Singaporeans who are doing a good job from being replaced by a foreigner?

Raising the qualifying salary without looking at the other parts of the law to protect Singaporeans do not resolve the problem and only helps to reinforce the impression that Singapore is favouring foreigners.

However, that doesn't mean that the law should protect undeserving Singaporeans. Yes, do not forget that we also have black sheeps amongst ourselves that would do the least work but expect to get same or more benefits than others who did much more.

Using EP to control the number of foreigners in Singapore is not effective at all, and only serves to bring about more cases such as those appearing in the newspapers lately. How to resolve this issue?

Look at Big Data...

You have data from MoM on the employees and employers and the nationality
You have data from CPF on the estimated gross salary paid

With this 2 sets of data, it's pretty easy to get clues on what is happening within the company and how the passes are being used

You do not need another set of law to do it. It's all there.

Actions speak louder than words

I quote from T.F. Hodge:

Both friend and enemy reside within us. One lives by the rule of compassion, the other by the rule of hard knocks. Though potential influence of either extreme is inevitable, our actions bear witness to the one we embrace. 

Yes, it has always been the case. Actions speak louder than words.

Taxi service standards set but ...

The time taken to hail a taxi in Singapore has improved since the taxi service standards have been set. Sometimes we still can't get taxis during peak periods but it has improved. However, it does seem that there are unintentional victims due to this service standard. The taxi drivers...

Yes, I understand that the minimum distance of 250km a day is to ensure that the taxis are fully utilised and that taxi companies do not indiscriminately buy more taxis causing more congestion on the roads when they are not utilised fully. However, somebody seems to have forgotten that that's the job of the COE, not the taxi service standard.

Just by the term taxi service standard... In what way does driving a minimum distance of 250km raise standards? The facts. It doesn't. In fact, it forces taxi drivers to regularly ply the roads, regardless if there are passengers or not, and releasing more carbon monoxide pollution in the air.

Do not forget too that Singapore is only 50 km from the east to the west, and 26 km from the north to the south. It is also not very often that you get customers from Pasir Ris wanting to travel to Tuas.

Guess what? Taxi drivers wanting to meet this service standard may instead travel all the way to Changi Airport waiting to pick up tourists that hopefully will go to some hotel in the east so that they could meet the standard. Doesn't this worsen the situation?

The minimum distance of 250km does help in keeping taxis on the roads but it is unfairly putting the burden on our taxi drivers, where most if not all are true blue Singaporeans trying to earn a living.

If we're talking about taxi service standards, I believe customers are only looking for taxi drivers that do not pick their passengers, drive around with an empty cab but with a busy sign on, and able to get a taxi when we try to book one, regardless of which taxi companies answer the booking.

The 250km minimum distance is no where in the customers wish list. In fact, all those who takes taxis regularly should know what are the bug bears. So how did this 250km standard come about?

Don't always be appraising yourself

I quote from Brenda Ueland:

Don't always be appraising yourself, wondering if you are better or worse than other writers. "I will not Reason and Compare," said Blake; "my business is to Create." Besides, since you are like no other being ever created since the beginning of Time, you are incomparable.